We answered your questions about the future of Roe v. Wade

The nation was jolted by an abortion milestone Monday night: In an initial draft opinion, the Supreme Court Roe v. Wade","_id":"00000180-8aa4-d7d2-adbc-feb681e50000","_type":"02ec1f82-5e56-3b8c-af6e-6fc7c8772266"}">voted to strike down Roe v. Wade, the landmark 1973 case that guaranteed federal constitutional protection of abortion rights.

The draft opinion, obtained and reported by POLITICO, is not the final release (expected by late June or early July). Justices can — and sometimes do — change their votes as opinions circulate. Major decisions can be subject to multiple drafts and vote-trading.

But this is the first time in modern history that the public has seen a Supreme Court draft decision while a case was still pending. And it has prompted a range of questions from what comes next to what this means for abortion appointments right now, from what states we should be eyeing to what Congress can and can't do.

We'll be tracking and answering audience questions — submitted through our Instagram callout — here.

The basics

"Can this be explained to us like we’re 5?"

A majority of Supreme Court justices, five of the nine, initially voted in favor of Mississippi in a closely watched case about banning abortion beyond 15 weeks of gestation.

A main reason cited for the decision by Justice Samuel Alito, who wrote the draft majority opinion, was that Roe v. Wade was “egregiously wrong” and must be overturned. Justices can change their votes as draft opinions circulate.

But if the draft opinion is the final one, which we should know by late June or early July, the court will end federal protections for abortion rights and leave the issue up to state politicians.

"What does this mean for everyday people who are seeking abortions?"

The draft opinion isn't law — the court will make a final ruling likely by the end of June or early July.

But should the court’s vote hold, federal protections for abortion rights will end, and states poised to repeal such rights will have a freer path to do so. States that do want to protect abortion rights will still have that opportunity. Simply put, if the draft majority opinion becomes the official opinion, the issue of abortion rights will be up to the states, and the states alone.

"Who voted to strike it down?"

We hear four of the other Republican-appointed justices — Clarence Thomas, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett — had voted with Alito in the conference held among the justices after hearing oral arguments in December, and that lineup remains unchanged as of this week. How Chief Justice John Roberts will ultimately vote is unclear, although CNN reported he’s unlikely to join the other conservatives.

The three Democratic-appointed justices — Stephen Breyer, Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan — are working on one or more dissents.

The states

"Which states are most at risk of outright bans and the worst restrictions?"

The overturning of Roe would almost immediately lead to stricter limits on abortion access in large parts of the South and Midwest, with about half of the states set to immediately impose broad abortion bans. Any state could still legally allow the procedure. Here’s a map from our data team:

What comes next

"Is there any way this can be stopped?"

Certainly. It’s just a draft majority opinion. Alito could agree to change the wording.

Justices who appear to have given their assent in the vote after arguments in the Mississippi case could decide to vote differently or to write their own opinions. If Roberts is on the fence or in a more centrist position, he could try to sway another conservative to his view, wresting the majority from Alito.

But many court-watchers doubt those scenarios and are also speculating on whether POLITICO’s unusual disclosure of the draft will prompt justices to harden their positions or be more flexible.

"Can Congress still legalize abortion nationwide?"

Democrats’ attempts to codify abortion rights are almost surely doomed.

Senate Democratic leaders promised to vote soon to protect abortion rights, but it’s going nowhere. They’re confronting the same problems that have stymied much of their agenda for the last year and a half: slim majorities and a lack of votes to change Senate rules. More on the abortion rights floor fight here.

Some background: The House already passed legislation in the fall that would codify Roe v. Wade and prohibit states from enacting abortion restrictions both later and earlier in pregnancy.

But a 46-48 Senate vote in February made clear the challenge in the Senate of even getting a simple majority on abortion legislation. Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) opposes abortion and voted with Republicans. Republican Sens. Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, who support abortion rights, also voted against the legislation.

OUR REPORTING

"How did you obtain this document?"

We received a copy of the draft opinion from a person familiar with the court’s proceedings in the Mississippi case along with other details supporting the authenticity of the document.

The draft opinion runs 98 pages, including a 31-page appendix of historical state abortion laws. The document is replete with citations to previous court decisions, books and other authorities, and includes 118 footnotes. The appearances and timing of this draft are consistent with court practice.